David is an amazing person: he has published 5 papers in Nature and 1 in Science, two of which were published this year. Check out what he says in Peaya interview (click the photo below).
David Shelly
I noticed that gmail will remind you if you have something like “… is attached” in the email body but actually you don’t attach any files. This is very considerate.
If variable X and Y has correlation 0.1, how much does it help to predict Y based on X? In the simplest binary case, the probability (p) to correctly predict Y based on X is a linear function of correlation (c), i.e.
$$p=\frac{c+1}{2}$$
That means, a 0.1 correlation will increase the prediction probability from 0.5 to 0.55, a 5% increase. This could be significant if you are betting a lot of money :)
Null hypothesis (H0): Octopus Paul doesn’t have the ability to predict. Or, the probability that he predicts correctly on each event is 1/2.
Data: In 2010 World Cup, Octopus Paul correctly predicted the outcomes of 8 games out of 8 games.
p-Value: (the probability to obtain the data assuming the null hypothesis is true): 1/2^8 = 0.0039
Statistical significance threshold: alpha = 0.05
Conclusion: as pvalue < alpha, we conclude that the null hypothesis should be rejected. Loosely speaking, octopus Paul does have prediction power.
Comic strips about our academia life – the excitement, joy, depression, and pain. We hope the strips will make you smile. Below is the latest comics:
A software tool that allows you to manage papers and PDFs and access them anywhere (Windows, Mac, and Linux). It also makes it easy to share with friends and collaborators. We hope Peaya Paper will make your work more productive. See how happy Iris (below) is after using Peaya Paper!
A MS Word add-in that offers a completely new way to insert citations — Cite Seamlessly with real-time context-dependent reference hinting. We hope Peaya Cite will allow you to concentrate on writing itself rather than on trivial citation insertion or formatting.
