Octopus Paul, hypothesis, p-Value and significance
July 12th, 2010
Null hypothesis (H0): Octopus Paul doesn’t have the ability to predict. Or, the probability that he predicts correctly on each event is 1/2.
Data: In 2010 World Cup, Octopus Paul correctly predicted the outcomes of 8 games out of 8 games.
p-Value: (the probability to obtain the data assuming the null hypothesis is true): 1/2^8 = 0.0039
Statistical significance threshold: alpha = 0.05
Conclusion: as pvalue < alpha, we conclude that the null hypothesis should be rejected. Loosely speaking, octopus Paul does have prediction power.
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About the author: Xu Cui is an entrepreneur with the goal of making people smarter. He is also a human brain research scientist in Stanford University. He lives in the Bay Area in the United States. He was born in He'nan province, China. He received education in Beijing University(BS), University of Tennessee (Knoxville) (MS), Baylor College of Medicine (PhD) and Stanford University (PostDoc). Read more ... |
