Octopus Paul, hypothesis, p-Value and significance

16 sec read

Null hypothesis (H0): Octopus Paul doesn’t have the ability to predict. Or, the probability that he predicts correctly on each event is 1/2.
Data: In 2010 World Cup, Octopus Paul correctly predicted the outcomes of 8 games out of 8 games.
p-Value: (the probability to obtain the data assuming the null hypothesis is true): 1/2^8 = 0.0039
Statistical significance threshold: alpha = 0.05
Conclusion: as pvalue < alpha, we conclude that the null hypothesis should be rejected. Loosely speaking, octopus Paul does have prediction power.


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也许我偶尔还是会想他 偶尔难免会惦记着他 就当他是个老朋友啊 也让我心疼也让我牵挂 只是我心中不再有火花 让往事都随风去吧 所有真心的痴心的话 仍在我心中 虽然已没有他 上大学的时候,不知道为什么我们
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